{"id":5047,"date":"2021-02-07T08:21:13","date_gmt":"2021-02-07T07:21:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/?p=5047"},"modified":"2021-02-07T08:21:19","modified_gmt":"2021-02-07T07:21:19","slug":"si-ndikoi-pasiguria-dhe-pandemia-ne-nivelin-e-kursimeve-ne-shqiperi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/?p=5047","title":{"rendered":"Si ndikoi pasiguria dhe pandemia n\u00eb nivelin e kursimeve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Nga vler\u00ebsimet empirike konfirmohet ekzistenca e nj\u00eb korrelacioni midis pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb situat\u00ebs s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb dhe rritjes s\u00eb depozitave t\u00eb kursimeve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr pasojat kryesore globale t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb pasiguria n\u00eb ekonomi, e reflektuar nga ndryshimi i sjelljes s\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve dhe bizneseve, kryesisht n\u00eb rritjen e prirjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer kundrejt prirjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb konsumuar apo p\u00ebr t\u00eb investuar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nj\u00eb dukuri e till\u00eb konfirmohet edhe nga statistikat e Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Europiane, duke krahasuar nivelin e depozitave t\u00eb vitit 2020 me ato t\u00eb vitit paraardh\u00ebs, madje duke e cil\u00ebsuar k\u00ebt\u00eb prirje p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer \u201cn\u00eb nivele t\u00eb paprecedenta, si p\u00ebrgjigje ndaj COVID-19\u201d (European Cental Bank, 2020). Kjo rritje e prirjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer lidhet kryesisht me dy faktor\u00eb: kursimi i pavullnetsh\u00ebm dhe kursimet parandaluese (termi origjinal: precautianory savings).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dukuria e kursimit t\u00eb pavullnetsh\u00ebm ka ardhur p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb ndryshimit t\u00eb stilit t\u00eb jetes\u00ebs dhe konsumit si pasoj\u00eb e masave shtr\u00ebnguese, apo karantin\u00ebs, nd\u00ebrsa kursimet parandaluese jan\u00eb kursimet q\u00eb vijn\u00eb si pasoj\u00eb e rritjes s\u00eb pasiguris\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomi, rritjes s\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb, dhe frik\u00ebs q\u00eb individ\u00ebt kan\u00eb p\u00ebr sigurimin e t\u00eb ardhurave n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen apo ruajtjen\/rifitimin e vendit t\u00eb tyre t\u00eb pun\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duke qen\u00eb se rritja e prirjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb dukuri q\u00eb shoq\u00ebron p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht sjelljen e konsumator\u00ebve gjat\u00eb krizave, \u00ebsht\u00eb me interes q\u00eb t\u00eb analizohet se si reflektohet kjo dukuri n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare, dhe sa ndikim ka pasiguria e situat\u00ebs s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb sjellje t\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situata e depozitave t\u00eb kursimeve n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Niveli i depozitave t\u00eb paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb p\u00ebr vitin 2020 ka sh\u00ebnuar rritje t\u00eb konsiderueshme n\u00eb krahasim me vitin paraardh\u00ebs. N\u00eb depozitat e paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb p\u00ebrfshihen depozitat e transferueshme, depozitat me likuidet t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe depozita t\u00eb tjera nga: qeveria lokale dhe administrata publike, korporata jofinanciare publike, korporata t\u00eb tjera financiare, korporata t\u00eb tjera jofinanciare dhe sektor\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb rezident\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb Grafikun 1. paraqitet totali i depozitave t\u00eb paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb p\u00ebr vitet 2019 dhe 2020, bazuar n\u00eb t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb. P\u00ebr vitin 2020, t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e p\u00ebrdit\u00ebsuara jan\u00eb deri n\u00eb muajin n\u00ebntor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por, n\u00eb muajin mars, q\u00eb korrespondon edhe me pandemin\u00eb dhe masat shtr\u00ebnguese n\u00eb vend, v\u00ebrehet nj\u00eb rritje e menj\u00ebhershme e depozitave t\u00eb paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb nga 1,041,844 milion\u00eb lek\u00eb, n\u00eb 1,071,848 milion\u00eb lek\u00eb. Rritja e menj\u00ebhershme lidhet edhe me forcimin e p\u00ebrkohsh\u00ebm t\u00eb euros (depozitat raportohen n\u00eb lek\u00eb).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00eb pas, n\u00eb prill, depozitat e paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb bien n\u00eb norma t\u00eb ngjashme me ato t\u00eb muajit shkurt dhe ndjekin nj\u00eb trend rrit\u00ebs, i cili \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i theksuar pas muajve t\u00eb ver\u00ebs. S\u00ebrish, kjo mund t\u00eb lidhet me rritjen e pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb situat\u00ebs s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb, e reflektuar edhe n\u00eb rritjen e rasteve t\u00eb reja ditore dhe numrit t\u00eb vdekjeve n\u00eb muajt e vjesht\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00eb Grafikun 2., paraqiten vlerat e depozitave me likuiditet t\u00eb lart\u00eb (pa afat) p\u00ebr vitet 2019 dhe 2020 (deri n\u00eb muajin n\u00ebntor, t\u00eb shprehura n\u00eb milion lek\u00eb). Sikurse v\u00ebrehet nga grafiku, ekziston nj\u00eb rritje e p\u00ebrgjithshme dhe e q\u00ebndrueshme e depozitave me likuiditet t\u00eb lart\u00eb krahasuar me vitin 2019. N\u00eb muajin mars t\u00eb vitit 2020, k\u00ebto depozita p\u00ebsuan r\u00ebnie t\u00eb leht\u00eb nga 44,266 milion\u00eb lek\u00eb, n\u00eb 43,738 milion\u00eb lek\u00eb, gj\u00eb e cila nuk korrespondon me rritjen e menj\u00ebhershme t\u00eb depozitave t\u00eb paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb n\u00eb po t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn periudh\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00eb pas, v\u00ebrehet nj\u00eb rritje graduale e k\u00ebtyre depozitave, e cila lidhet edhe me preferenc\u00ebn p\u00ebr ruajtjen e kursimeve n\u00eb forma me likuiditet t\u00eb lart\u00eb, duke marr\u00eb parasysh edhe vazhdimin e pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb situat\u00ebs me pandemin\u00eb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ndikimi i pasiguris\u00eb n\u00eb nivelet e kursimeve<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

P\u00ebr t\u00eb vler\u00ebsuar n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb empirike ndikimin e pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb krijuar nga situata e pandemis\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm t\u00eb kursimeve, kam p\u00ebrdorur tre variabla, si nj\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb matur perceptimin mbi pasigurin\u00eb: numrin e rasteve t\u00eb reja ditore t\u00eb konfirmuara me COVID-19, numrin e vdekjeve t\u00eb shkaktuara nga COVID-19, si dhe nj\u00eb variab\u00ebl binar q\u00eb tregon pranin\u00eb ose jo t\u00eb masave shtr\u00ebnguese, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur n\u00ebn kontroll pandemin\u00eb (karantina). P\u00ebr t\u00eb kryer k\u00ebt\u00eb vler\u00ebsim kam p\u00ebrdorur t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat q\u00eb i korrespondojn\u00eb periudh\u00ebs shkurt-n\u00ebntor 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat, q\u00eb lidhen me nivelin e depozitave t\u00eb paras\u00eb s\u00eb gjer\u00eb dhe depozitave pa afat, jan\u00eb n\u00eb nivel mujor, nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat q\u00eb u korrespondojn\u00eb variablave q\u00eb masin pasigurin\u00eb jan\u00eb n\u00eb nivel ditor. Duke qen\u00eb se t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat q\u00eb i korrespondojn\u00eb variablit t\u00eb varur (depozitat) jan\u00eb t\u00eb censuruara (pra jan\u00eb n\u00eb nivel mujor dhe jo ditor), kam p\u00ebrdorur modelin Tobit p\u00ebr vler\u00ebsimin e regresionit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Formalisht modeli paraqitet si m\u00eb posht\u00eb:
Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tregues se pasiguria e vazhdueshme e situat\u00ebs s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb shoq\u00ebrohet me rritje t\u00eb kursimeve n\u00eb total, por edhe me rritje t\u00eb kursimeve n\u00eb form\u00eb m\u00eb likuide. P\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket variablit tjet\u00ebr q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur p\u00ebr t\u00eb matur pasigurin\u00eb, numrit t\u00eb vdekjeve ditore nga COVID-19, ekziston nj\u00eb lidhje pozitive e k\u00ebtij treguesi me depozitat totale, si dhe me depozitat pa afat. Rritja e numrit t\u00eb vdekjeve me 1 rast ditor shoq\u00ebrohet me rritje t\u00eb depozitave totale me 974.2 lek\u00eb, si dhe me rritje t\u00eb depozitave pa afat me 84.2 lek\u00eb.\/ Monitor.al <\/p>\n\n\n\n


\"\"Te dhenat <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nga vler\u00ebsimet empirike konfirmohet ekzistenca e nj\u00eb korrelacioni midis pasiguris\u00eb s\u00eb situat\u00ebs s\u00eb pandemis\u00eb dhe rritjes s\u00eb depozitave t\u00eb kursimeve. Nj\u00eb nd\u00ebr pasojat kryesore globale t\u00eb pandemis\u00eb vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb pasiguria n\u00eb ekonomi, e reflektuar nga ndryshimi i sjelljes s\u00eb konsumator\u00ebve dhe bizneseve, kryesisht n\u00eb rritjen e prirjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer kundrejt prirjes p\u00ebr t\u00eb …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5048,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/06348DCD-3CD1-4247-AFDE-E74D4196DD8E.jpeg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5047"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5047"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5047\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5049,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5047\/revisions\/5049"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/voranews.al\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}